Oracle’s stock is sitting roughly 50% below its September 2025 peak. Its backlog has grown to $553 billion. And Dan Ives just raised his price target for the second time in three weeks.
The gap between where Oracle trades and what Wedbush thinks it is worth is becoming one of the more striking disconnects on Wall Street right now.
Wedbush raised its Oracle price target
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his price target on Oracle to $275 from $225 on May 13, reaffirming an outperform rating, according to GuruFocus. The move comes less than three weeks after Wedbush initiated coverage on April 24 with an outperform rating and a $225 price target, calling Oracle “a foundational infrastructure provider for the AI revolution,” according to TIKR.
Ives also reiterated the $225 target on April 28 after Oracle shares fell sharply on a Wall Street Journal report raising questions about OpenAI’s internal revenue growth. He called the selloff a “way overreaction,” pointing to Oracle’s $553 billion total backlog, including a $300 billion cloud contract with OpenAI spanning five years, as evidence that demand is real and contracted, TIKR confirmed.
The Oracle AI infrastructure thesis and why Wedbush is accelerating its view
The core of Wedbush’s argument is that Oracle is no longer a legacy enterprise software name struggling to keep pace with hyperscalers. It is becoming what Ives calls a foundational AI infrastructure provider, with a cloud business growing at a pace that most investors are not yet fully pricing in.
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue grew 84% year over year to $4.88 billion in its most recent quarter. AI infrastructure gross margins came in at 32%, above the company’s own 30% guidance floor. The multicloud database business is operating at 60% to 80% gross margins, a mix that is lifting overall profitability as it scales alongside infrastructure growth, according to TIKR.
Ives has been direct about the long-term thesis. “I think Oracle is going to be a tremendously bigger company in the next two, three or four years than it is today,” he said in a Bloomberg interview.
“This stock ultimately could double as they monetize A.I. over the coming years,” The Daily Hodl reported.
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Why Oracle’s $553 billion backlog is the number investors should focus on
The most important figure in the Oracle investment case is not the current stock price or even the current revenue run rate. It is the $553 billion remaining performance obligations backlog, which reflects multi-year commitments from customers for cloud and AI infrastructure capacity that has not yet been delivered or recognized as revenue, according to TIKR.
That backlog, up 438% year over year at the most recent count, provides several years of revenue visibility at a level few companies anywhere in the technology sector can match.
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The $300 billion OpenAI commitment alone spans five years. Bears have raised concerns that OpenAI missing internal revenue targets could reduce its draw on Oracle’s capacity.
Wedbush’s counterargument is that the $122 billion OpenAI funding round provides sufficient capital to fulfill compute commitments for at least three years, and that the broader backlog across Meta, Nvidia, and other customers provides enough diversification to contain single-customer risk.
Key figures on Oracle and Wedbush’s May 13 price target raise:
- Wedbush new price target: $275, raised from $225, outperform maintained, analyst Dan Ives, May 13, according to GuruFocus
- Prior Wedbush target progression: Initiated at $225 on April 24, reiterated April 28, raised to $275 May 13, TIKR noted
- Oracle total backlog: $553 billion, including $300 billion OpenAI contract spanning five years, TIKR confirmed
- OCI revenue growth: 84% year-over-year to $4.888 billion; AI infrastructure gross margins at 32%, above 30% guidance floor, TIKR noted
- Oracle stock versus peak: Approximately 50% below September 2025 high of $345.72, TIKR confirmed
- Oracle Q4 FY2026 earnings date: June 8; other analyst targets include Mizuho outperform at $400 and RBC sector perform at $250, according to Yahoo Finance
What comes next for Oracle investors ahead of June 8 earnings
Oracle reports Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on June 8. That report will be the most important near-term test of whether the backlog is converting into revenue at the pace investors and analysts expect. The key metrics to watch are OCI infrastructure revenue growth, new remaining performance obligation additions, and management’s guidance on capacity delivery timelines.
Wedbush is not alone in its bullish stance, but the spread in analyst views is wide. Mizuho carries an outperform rating with a $400 target, more than 40% above Wedbush’s new number. RBC maintained a sector perform with a $250 target after cutting from $310, citing mixed fiscal Q2 results. That range from $250 to $400 across major analysts reflects genuine uncertainty about how quickly Oracle can translate its contracted backlog into delivered revenue and recognized profit.
The bear case centers on deeply negative free cash flow, $123 billion in net debt, and the risk that capacity delivery slips. The bull case, which Wedbush is aggressively making, is that the backlog provides revenue visibility that makes the debt serviceable, the infrastructure gross margins prove the unit economics work, and that Oracle in 2030 looks nothing like Oracle in 2025.
The June 8 earnings report will be the next data point that either validates or complicates that case.
Related: Dan Ives sends a blunt message to investors fleeing Oracle stock
