Gas up 50% YTD? What to expect at the pump this summer

If you’re a driver who finds stopping in to your local gas station or even Costco or Walmart painful, you have to be glad April is over.

But there’s a problem. The high fuel prices you just suffered through as war raged in the Persian Gulf aren’t going away. You might even see U.S. gas prices set new highs between now and, say, July.

That’s what happened in the summer of 2022 as global inflation surged as the Covid-19 pandemic ended and the world reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The easing of the pandemic unleashed a huge and sudden spurt of consumer demand for EVERYTHING. The Ukraine invasion led to sanctions imposed against Russia. The result. Oil and gasoline prices took off as spring started, and U.S. gasoline prices nationally topped $5 per gallon in the middle of June before drifting lower in the fall.

Higher gas prices just plain shock

Gas prices finished April at about $4.40 a gallon, according to GasBuddy and AAA , up around 8%, which doesn’t sound awful. Except that prices jumped more than 45% between Feb. 27, the day before the start of the war between Israel and the United States and Iran, and April 30.

Related: Goldman Sachs revamps inflation outlook for 2026

You’re well aware how prices have jumped in 2026: 51% year-to-date, AAA suggests. GasBuddy thinks the change is more than 55%.

Prices continue to be highest in the Far West, Alaska and Hawaii and least expensive in the central to upper Midwest. The Los Angeles area saw gas above $6 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. It was $3.63 a gallon in Oklahoma City, according to AAA.

The Energy Information Agency has an optimistic forecast. Its summer 2026 gasoline forecast suggests prices will fall to $3.75 a gallon in July and $3.75. The forecast, however, was released in early April.

We’re seeing shortages around the world, from Kenya to the Philippines.

Time for the proverbial ‘Now what?’ on gas prices

You, the driver, now face a market affected by two — maybe three — forces. The first two will pressure oil and gasoline prices:

• The war is still going on. President Trump is still threatening more attacks on Iran unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened. (Oil stocks, up at first, fell back in April.)
• The traditional summer driving season is starting in the United States as Americans go on vacation. The formula used to make gasoline changes to account for hot weather and environmental rules, and prices, as a result, usually rise.

More Oil and Gas:

• AAA gas prices reveal a new trend for Americans
• Early Chevron stock investors now earn 12.1% dividend yield
• Exxon Mobil’s future rests on massive play (it isn’t Venezuela)

The driving season may actually have two chapters. Heavy traveling occurs in mid-to-late July, then eases for a week. (One sees this every year in Yellowstone National Park, according to Roadgenius.com and the National Park Service.) Then, a second wave heads out on the road and but starts to head home by mid-August.

A third force may be worth waiting for

The third force may result in downward pressure on prices.

The United Arab Emirates quit the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Reuters suggested more oil and gasoline may hit markets globally and lead to prices cuts. The UAE is one of OPEC ‘s biggest producers and has spare capacity.

But it is early yet to say definitively prices will come down, although historical data from the Oil Price Information Service show prices usually come down in the fall. One can only hope.

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